Another New Prime Minister
It is difficult to write about the state of UK politics with any degree of intellectual rigour when the entire situation has become so utterly farcical. My initial reaction to the recent departure of Liz Truss after just 45 days in office, was to laugh with abject scorn and derision. She was destined to fail due to utter lack of ability. However, there is still the outstanding matter of the country lacking a credible and functional government to address inflation, the cost of living crisis and resolve all the issues stemming from Brexit. There are problematic national and international events taking place that need addressing. A united, pragmatic and empathetic government is required to solve both these short term and long term needs. Sadly, the governing party is riven with opposing factions and there is no commonly held policy or underlying ideology. The PM may well have changed but the underlying flaws remain.
It is difficult to write about the state of UK politics with any degree of intellectual rigour when the entire situation has become so utterly farcical. My initial reaction to the recent departure of Liz Truss after just 45 days in office, was to laugh with abject scorn and derision. She was destined to fail due to utter lack of ability. However, there is still the outstanding matter of the country lacking a credible and functional government to address inflation, the cost of living crisis and resolve all the issues stemming from Brexit. There are problematic national and international events taking place that need addressing. A united, pragmatic and empathetic government is required to solve both these short term and long term needs. Sadly, the governing party is riven with opposing factions and there is no commonly held policy or underlying ideology. The PM may well have changed but the underlying flaws remain.
The new incumbent of No 10 Downing Street, Rishi Sunak, has achieved one major milestone. He is the first British Asian Prime Minister and that is certainly noteworthy. However, beyond this I see no other reason to celebrate his appointment. He may have calmed the markets by representing the traditional face of Conservative fiscal prudence but he has no new policy announcements. Effectively, he intends to carry on with the conspicuously nebulous manifesto promises of 2019 and will no doubt usher in “Austerity 2.0” after his predecessor left a gaping hole in the nation’s finances and undermined our capacity to borrow cheaply. He has said nothing to allay the immediate fears of those on middle or low incomes. Furthermore, after promising to bring “integrity and accountability” back to UK politics he re-appointed Suella Braverman as Home Secretary, after she resigned for breaching the ministerial code 6 days earlier.
We are still two years away from a General Election and even if there was one announced tomorrow, I would still struggle to find a political party that came anywhere near representing what I consider to be the nation’s political and economic needs. I would vote Labour only to remove the current administration and not because I am overly enthused by the party. Ultimately I and many other voters are politically homeless and the current “First Past the Post” voting system does not favour new parties. Furthermore, over the course of my lifetime the UK electorate has become increasingly politically illiterate and increasingly impatient, resulting in certain socio-economic groups voting against their own interests. It raises the question as to how much responsibility do the electorate bear for the iniquities they inflict on themselves and others by their political choices? Overall I am not optimistic about the immediate future and I am reminded of that line from Gremlins 2 about “put everything you've got into canned food and shotguns”.
The New Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (Again)
Conservative Party has been in government in the UK since 2010. During that time there have been three Prime Ministers. Today we moved onto the fourth. After Boris Johnson resigned on 7th July, the nation has had to endure a tedious two month process in which the Conservative Party elects a new leader. That person then becomes the PM by default. Many readers unfamiliar with the UK political system may be surprised that a change of leader has not led to a General Election. That is because the Conservative Party still holds a parliamentary majority of 71 elected Members of Parliament. Hence it is still constitutionally quite able to govern, despite Boris Johnson being forced from office. Therefore party members vote for a new party leader who gets the top job by default. Remember that in the UK, the Prime Minister is not the head of state and does not have the executive powers of a President.
Conservative Party has been in government in the UK since 2010. During that time there have been three Prime Ministers. Today we moved onto the fourth. After Boris Johnson resigned on 7th July, the nation has had to endure a tedious two month process in which the Conservative Party elects a new leader. That person then becomes the PM by default. Many readers unfamiliar with the UK political system may be surprised that a change of leader has not led to a General Election. That is because the Conservative Party still holds a parliamentary majority of 71 elected Members of Parliament. Hence it is still constitutionally quite able to govern, despite Boris Johnson being forced from office. Therefore party members vote for a new party leader who gets the top job by default. Remember that in the UK, the Prime Minister is not the head of state and does not have the executive powers of a President.
This afternoon the results were formally announced, although polling and market research has strongly indicated that the former Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was more than likely to win. That has now been confirmed. Liz Truss received 81,326 votes (57%) and Rishi Sunak received 60,399 (43%) on a turnout of 141,725 (82.6%). 172,437 Conservative Party members were eligible to vote. If you want to drill down deeper into the numbers Truss received 47% of eligible Tory members. Although she has won the election, it is not a decisive victory. Previous Tory leaders won by greater margins (Boris Johnson 66% and Theresa May 60%). Nor does she enjoy unanimous support from her own MPs, as only 113 saw fit to vote for her as leader (Rishi Sunak earned 137 votes), prior to the ballot being put to the party membership. According to YouGov, only 12% of Britons expect Truss to be a good or great leader, while 52% expect her to be poor or terrible.
To say that Liz Truss has some major political and social problems to tackle in the first month of her leadership is an understatement. Those of a political bent will be aware of her rise through the political ranks of the Conservative Party. The wider public are not so familiar with her apart from what they’ve seen in recent weeks. What they have seen is someone campaigning, not to the nation, but to the party faithful. Hence a lot of what Liz Truss has said has been showboating to the home crowd and politically tone deaf to the wider public. If you use Google to research the new Prime Minister the first thing you’ll find are all the gaffs she’s made in previous years that have now all become memes. If you set aside politics and judge her on her oratorical skills, charisma and overall appeal, she comes up wanting. Those who cry “give her a chance” are spuriously appealing to the alleged sense of fair play of the UK electorate. A quality the government of the last 12 years sorely lacks. It is current Tory policy to change any rule that stands in its way.
Tomorrow the new Prime Minister will announce her new cabinet and it will no doubt be a dismal collection of the intellectually bankrupt and the hopelessly out of their depth. I very much doubt if any of the major political challenges will be addressed in the coming parliamentary session. Real help will not come regarding spiralling energy prices, the Northern Ireland protocol will continue to be insoluble for a pro Brexit government and the ongoing skills and labour shortage, combined with ongoing lack of funding will lead to more public institutions collapsing. Inflation, low wages and rising crime could all contribute to a volatile political climate in 2023. So far, rather than seeking new ideas, Liz Truss has indicated an ideological retreat into Thatcherism, advocating policies and dogma that are no longer relevant in the current political climate.
If you take the time to find and read the serious political pundits, not the client journalists found in the popular UK press, you’ll find a lot of speculation about how the Conservative and Unionist Party is heading for an electoral disaster in 2024 and potentially its own extinction. I sadly feel obliged to remind people that it is “the doom of men that they forget”. Logic and clear evidence no longer shift the political scales like they used to. At best I think a voting pact between all parties that aren’t the Conservatives, may prevail. Perhaps the next government will then be a coalition against them. However, the election is a long way off. Myself and many other politically homeless voters’ biggest concern is the human collateral damage that will be incurred while we wait. Sadly, there is no immediate light at the end of the tunnel and that it also appears to be inordinately long.
The New Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
From time to time, I have written what can broadly be classified as political posts. Most of these have been designed to present an overview to those readers who live outside of the UK and may not be familiar with the subtleties of British politics. Furthermore, I am not affiliated to any of the major UK political parties and broadly see myself as politically homeless at present. This post is a brief overview on today’s change in UK Prime Minister and is intended to explain how this situation has occurred and what happens next.
From time to time, I have written what can broadly be classified as political posts. Most of these have been designed to present an overview to those readers who live outside of the UK and may not be familiar with the subtleties of British politics. Furthermore, I am not affiliated to any of the major UK political parties and broadly see myself as politically homeless at present. This post is a brief overview on today’s change in UK Prime Minister and is intended to explain how this situation has occurred and what happens next.
In the 2017 General Election the Conservative Party managed to bolster its reduced numbers in the House of Parliament by doing a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, thus having sufficient seats to form a government. The leader of the Conservative party was at that time Theresa May, so by default she became the 54th Prime Minister of the UK. However, the issue of Brexit currently falls outside of traditional party lines and therefore cannot be seen purely as a “Left versus Right” problem. The Conservative Party has been and remains divided over Brexit and Theresa May has been fighting a running battle not only with opposition parties but with half of her own backbenchers. Due to current parliamentary arithmetic she has been unable to find any support for her Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and effectively lost the ability to lead her own party. Her departure from the office of Prime Minister is down to her own party, who concluded that she couldn’t deliver Brexit in a manner deemed suitable nor win a General Election. Hence, she was politically forced to go.
So in recent weeks there has been a “battle” to become the next leader of the Conservative party because that leader will by default become the next Prime Minister. Needless to say early opinion polls showed the Ex-Foreign Secretary and former Mayor of London Boris Johnson was heading for a substantial victory. Yesterday it was announced that he had won the leadership race against the current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, by 92,153 to 46,656 votes. Now, it is very important to stress that this was not in anyway, a public vote. This was a vote of Conservative Party members; the members of the general public who are sufficiently engaged politically to pay their subscriptions fees and join the Conservative Party. It wasn’t a vote for Prime Minister but a vote on who would be the new leader of the party. But because that party is currently in government, then that new party leader automatically steps into the role of Prime Minister. Therefore the leader of the 5th largest economy in the world was decided by 138,809 people. The current electorate of the UK is 46.8 million people.
As of this afternoon, Theresa May has visited The Queen and formally resigned her premiership. Boris Johnson will subsequently have an audience with Her Majesty and state his intentions to form a government. Once these formalities have been addressed, he will return to 10 Downing Street and take residence. His next immediate duty is to sign the “letters of last resort”. These are four identically worded handwritten letters from the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to the commanding officers of the four British ballistic missile submarines. They contain instructions to retaliate or not to retaliate against a nuclear strike, or for the Commander to use their own judgement or to place the vessel under command of an Allied Power. Once this has been done, then it is a question of politics. No doubt the new Prime Minister will make a formal statement to the British public before then proceeding with forming a new cabinet. Political opponents will be dismissed and those loyal, or invaluable will be given new positions. It should be noted that Boris Johnson is a controversial figure within his own party. That combined with current Brexit divisions means that some MPs will not work with him. Several Ministers have already resigned.
What happens in the next few weeks of Prime Minister Johnson’s term of office is much harder to predict. He has stated that he means to return to the EU and “re-open Brexit negotiations, although there is little or no political will from Europe to do such things. There is still very strong political resistance against “no deal” in parliament across all parties. Will there be any tangible movement on Brexit? I’m not so sure. Then there is the issue of international relationships and due to the shadow of Brexit, will there be a shift towards the greater ties with the US and its current incumbent president. There some in the UK that would like to see a Prime Minister that followed suite with President Trump and pursued a similarly unorthodox approach to government. One that is happy to break with tradition and existing perceived wisdom. Yet there are others both at a parliamentary level and as registered voters that are deeply sceptical of Boris Johnson, his political track record, associations and overall approach to politics.
If the new Prime Minster finds himself stymied on all fronts it may well lead to another general election. There is the possibility of a vote of no confidence by MPs or Prime Minister Johnson may well take a calculated risk to hold an election himself to give his position political legitimacy and to seek to increase the Conservative majority in parliament. It should be noted that one of the reasons that Johnson was voted into office by party members, is because he’s one of the few politicians that is recognised nationally. Because a substantial percentage of the UK electorate are not greatly politically engaged, he has the advantage of brand recognition and is perceived as affable and a charismatic. Therefore Conservative party members hope he be able successfully win a further term of office for the current government. Yet the recent Local Council Elections along with the European Election showed that the country remains divided and broadly entrenched in its political positions. I’m not sure if such a gamble would payoff or make any significant difference to the parliamentary landscape.
Effectively it is now just a question of time and waiting to see where Prime Minister tries to go politically. Will he pursue a dogmatic approach to Brexit or will he prove to be more pragmatic and flexible to get this extremely difficult matter resolved? Or will he be politically consumed by his Premiership as his predecessor? As for the man himself and the controversy surrounding him, I will leave that to others to analyse as they have far more information at their disposal than I. Here is a link to an article in today’s Washington Post by Ian Dunt is the editor of Politics.co.uk, in which he scrutinises Boris Johnson and reflects upon both his political and private personas.